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Economic Daily-China Economic Net Geneva (Reporter Yang Haiquan) The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released the latest "Trade Statistics and Outlook" report that after the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, world trade will usher in a strong but uneven The recovery of global trade is expected to reach 8% in 2021.
According to WTO forecasts, due to the faster-than-expected growth rate of merchandise trade in the second half of last year, the recovery process of global trade has further improved; last year, global merchandise trade volume fell by 5.3% and "bottomed out" in the second quarter. Global trade will continue to be caused by the epidemic in 2021. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic will continue to appear until 2022, and global trade will still be lower than the level before the epidemic, and global trade growth will slow to 4%; the relatively positive short-term prospects of global trade will be affected by regional differences and continued service trade. The impact of factors such as weakness and lag in vaccination in some countries will present regional imbalances; the epidemic will continue to pose the greatest threat to the prospects of global trade. If the epidemic rebounds, the prospects for global trade recovery will be easily destroyed.
At the same time, in the short term, there are still downside risks in global trade. The main risk points are concentrated on various factors related to the epidemic, including insufficient production and distribution of vaccines, and the emergence of new variants of the virus. In the medium and long term, public debt and fiscal deficits will also put considerable pressure on economic growth and trade.
The report believes that if the production and distribution of vaccines accelerate and the blockade restrictions are relaxed faster, it is expected that this factor will contribute about 1 percentage point to global GDP growth in 2021 and about 2.5 percentage points to the growth of global merchandise trade volume. In the fourth quarter of 2021, global trade will return to its pre-epidemic level. If vaccine production cannot meet demand, or there are new variants of the virus that cannot be effectively dealt with by existing vaccines, this factor will reduce global GDP growth by 1 percentage point in 2021, and global trade growth by nearly 2 percentage points.
In 2020, the impact of the epidemic on the volume of merchandise trade in various regions will vary, and imports and exports of most regions will drop significantly. Asia is the only exception, where exports grew by 0.3%, while imports fell only slightly by 1.3%. Regions rich in natural resources have the largest decline in imports, including Africa (-8.8%), South America (-9.3%) and the Middle East (-11.3%). Compared with other regions, the decline in North American imports is relatively small (-6.1%).
The report believes that in 2021, thanks to the huge injection of fiscal funds from the United States, global commodity trade demand will be driven by North America, and this effect will be transmitted through trade channels and stimulate other economies. In view of this, the report predicts that imports in Europe and South America will increase by about 8%, while imports in other regions will have relatively small increases.
In 2021, most of the global import demand will be met by Asia, and Asian exports are expected to grow by 8.4%; European exports will grow by 8.3%; North American exports will grow by a small amount of 7.7%. Based on forecasts of increased travel spending and increased oil demand throughout the year, exports from Africa and the Middle East will grow by 8.1% and 12.4%, respectively. Export growth in South America and the Commonwealth of Independent States will both slow down, with growth rates of 3.2% and 4.4%, respectively.
WTO Director-General Ngozio Conyo-Ibeala said: "Since the middle of last year, the strong rebound in global trade has helped to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on people’s lives, business production and the development of various economies. Maintain international markets. Openness is vital to the recovery of countries’ economies from this crisis. Among them, the rapid and fair distribution of vaccines on a global scale is a prerequisite for a strong and sustained recovery. Trade can help countries obtain food and basic medical supplies during the epidemic. Production. Vaccines require the joint investment of many countries, but trade restrictions have made it more difficult to increase vaccine production. Therefore, the international community must use the power of trade to increase the opportunities for people from all countries to obtain vaccines."
